Oregon households face the steepest energy cost increase in the nation, paying a projected $9,300 more through 2040, a new analysis finds.

Energy Innovation, a California-based think tank, released state-by-state projections on Friday, Oct. 2. The findings, first reported by OPB, show that federal policy changes since President Donald Trump returned to office will add $840 per year to the average Oregon household's energy costs by 2035 and $1,200 per year by 2040.

That cumulative $9,300 figure tops every other state in the contiguous U.S.

The national average is $6,500. Four other states — Mississippi, South Dakota, Virginia and Wyoming — trail just behind at roughly $9,000 each.

For Bethany and Cedar Mill households already absorbing steep utility bills, the projections land on top of increases that have already arrived. Portland General Electric, which serves the area as the Portland metro region's largest electric utility, proposed in July to raise residential rates by nearly 4% in 2027. That would add about $8.33 a month to the average bill. PGE customers saw a nearly 50% rate increase between 2021 and 2025, according to Oregon Citizens' Utility Board spokesperson Charlotte Shuff.

Bob Jenks, executive director of the Oregon Citizens' Utility Board, called the projected increases "frightening" because Oregon already has an energy affordability problem. Jenks said he expects utilities to disconnect more customers who cannot afford their bills as costs climb.

"We're trying to optimize among the resource options we have, and they're trying to take things away and raise the costs," Jenks said.

The Energy Innovation report also projects gasoline prices in Oregon will rise 13% by 2035 and 23% by 2040, driven by a combination of federal rollbacks to transportation efficiency incentives and broader energy market pressures including the Iran conflict. Statewide, the think tank estimates Oregon households will pay a combined $18 billion more for energy through 2040 and the economy will lose 7,500 jobs per year on average over the next decade. Worsening air pollution would raise healthcare costs by $280 million, the report said.

The analysis examined seven categories of federal policy changes, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's cuts to clean energy tax credits, EPA rollbacks of clean air and power plant rules, loosened tailpipe emissions standards, blocked zero-emission vehicle rules, limits on wind and solar development, and canceled hydrogen hub funding.

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement that lowering electricity prices remains a top priority and that Trump is expanding coal and natural gas production to strengthen the grid. Rogers called it "irresponsible" to classify Energy Innovation as nonpartisan, saying its employees have donated to Democrats and worked with Democrats on climate policy. Energy Innovation spokesman Silvio Marcacci said the organization works with policymakers of both parties and that multiple Republican-led states have used its modeling tool. Three of the five states facing the highest projected cost increases have Republican governors.

The independent research firm Rhodium Group said in April that the U.S. has entered a new period of rising electricity prices, citing natural gas price swings, needed grid upgrades, inflation and wildfire mitigation costs.

Energy Innovation's report recommends five state-level actions Oregon leaders could take, including accelerating wind and solar procurement and investing in building efficiency. The Oregon Public Utility Commission is still reviewing PGE's proposed 2027 rate increase.